The Weekly: Climate Risk Literacy in Commercial Real Estate
Extreme weather, rising insurance premiums, new carbon regulations, and shifting market expectations are pushing commercial real estate (CRE) into uncharted territory.
If each $1 invested in disaster preparation saves $13 in economic costs, damages, and cleanup, then it's clear that investing in the preparation for climate-related catastrophes produces a higher ROI than just focusing on recovery alone. But what, exactly, does that preparation look like?
In its 2024 Climate Resiliency Report, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce made a big claim: Each $1 invested in disaster preparation saves $13 in economic costs, damages, and cleanup.
The takeaway is clear: Investing in the preparation for climate-related catastrophes produces a higher ROI than just focusing on recovery alone. But what, exactly, does that preparation look like? It’s more than just boarding up windows and buying sandbags.
The solutions, approaches, technologies, and partnerships that make up resiliency are varied. Resiliency for a community that is vulnerable to hailstorms in the Midwest looks different from resiliency for a community facing flooding or fires.
At The Epicenter, we define resiliency as the ability of infrastructure—the physical, economic, and social systems central to the functioning of an economy and a society—to withstand extreme climate impacts and recover from them quickly. This briefing aims to add context and color to that definition through a range of specific examples.
Current Reality: America’s aging housing stock means the roofing and building materials we’ve used to construct the majority of buildings in the U.S. are not suited for the current frequency or severity of storms—whether they are hailstorms, hurricanes, or wildfires. The median age of owner-occupied homes in the U.S. is 40 years, according to 2021 data from the American Community Survey. Just less than half of the owner-occupied homes were built before 1980, and 35% were built before 1970. Furthermore, traditional roofs in hail-prone areas last half as long (10 years vs. 20 years) as roofs in non-hail areas because they need to be replaced more frequently.
Resilient Solutions: Fortified roofing and stronger building materials can reduce the costs of disasters for individual homeowners and for communities as a whole.
Resiliency Spotlight: Nanotech Materials' Cool Roof & Fire Mitigation technologies | Recently, Maddie Vann from The Epicenter team sat down for an interview with Carrie Horazeck, Chief Commercial Officer for Nanotech Materials, and Troy Marshall, VP of Fire Proofing for Nanotech Materials. Seven key highlights from the interview offer insights into opportunities and challenges with traditional fire mitigation and cool roof materials. >> Read More
Current Reality: 65% of counties, cities, and towns across the U.S. have yet to adopt the most up-to-date building codes, according to a FEMA report. Meanwhile, 30% of new construction is happening in areas with either no building codes or codes that are more than 20 years old.
Resilient Solutions: Building to the most stringent code requirements can protect new assets from damage from wildfires, hurricanes, and other storms.
Current Reality: Old or outdated zoning and building codes can create vulnerabilities both before a disaster hits and in the recovery and rebuilding process. Consider New Orleans's zoning codes at the time of Hurricane Katrina. They had largely been in place since the 1970s, with only a few revisions in the 1990s. According to a report by The American Planning Association, “The lack of a useful and effective zoning ordinance, as well as an effective political and regulatory structure necessary to enforce it, has often been cited as one of the reasons for the city’s contentious post-Katrina recovery process.”
Resilient Solutions: Effective zoning policies can both limit the damage of a natural disaster before it hits and facilitate the recovery and rebuilding process. Land use planning regulations and zoning requirements are varied, but can include everything from requiring defensible space in the home ignition zone (the immediate space around the home), ensuring adequate water supply, improving road widths and access, managing vegetation, and improving how neighborhoods are masterplanned.
Current Reality: In 30 minutes, a hailstorm can cause billions of dollars worth of damage across a community and tens of millions of dollars of damage to solar panels specifically. Over 70% of solar losses in the last decade have occurred since 2017. Hail is responsible for 54% of all solar claims, with the average solar hail claim at $58 million.
Resilient Solutions: New technologies can identify an incoming storm and reduce the exposure of assets in its path.
Current Reality: The systems to detect nascent fires and storms and communicate to residents in harm’s way often break down or aren’t as effective as they need to be. The result can be lives lost, gridlock traffic on evacuation routes, and added damage. In the wake of the Los Angeles fires in January 2025 that cost at least 29 lives and billions of dollars of damage, attention has turned to failures in the early warning and communication systems. Evacuation orders came in too late for some neighborhoods, and there were false alerts telling communities not in danger to immediately evacuate.
Resilient Solutions: With advances in 5G technology, AI, and satellite internet, there are a range of technologies that are used to detect risks before they become active hazards.
Current Reality: From 2000 to 2021, weather-related events were responsible for 83% of all power outages. Today, over 70% of the U.S. electricity grid is more than 25 years old. An old grid is not only a dirty grid, it’s also a vulnerable grid. Power outages from severe storms have doubled in the last two decades, and the leading causes of electric power outage events are extreme weather and climate-related threats.
Resilient Solutions: Building a fortified, resilient, winterized grid can reduce potential damages and ensure powerful storms don’t leave people without power and heat.
Current Reality: The accumulation of dead and dry vegetation in forests increases the risk of wildfires. A 20-year study from UC Berkeley found that prescribed burning and restoration thinning can reduce wildfire risk and boost a forest’s resilience to climate change. The problem is that such practices are not yet commonplace, and the U.S. and state forest services are underfunded.
Resilient Solutions: Improving forest management is often considered the responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service, but private capital has a role to play in improving forest management practices and picking up where the U.S. Forest Service leaves off.
Current Reality: Mispriced risk in insurance markets is leading to major losses for insurance companies and higher exposure for property owners. One estimate puts insurance industry losses for the Palisade and Eaton fires in Los Angeles between $25 billion and $39 billion. Meanwhile, insurance companies are cancelling policies and reducing coverage. In the riskiest areas of California, Insurance companies declined to renew 2.8 million homeowner policies in the state between 2020 and 2022, according to data from the California Department of Insurance.
Resilient Solutions: New insurance and reinsurance models are more accurately pricing in risk and extending coverage. As heightened wildfire risk strains the insurance and reinsurance markets, new insurance models are emerging to offer fresh solutions.
Current Reality: Investing in long-term resiliency initiatives is expensive, and many local governments lack the capital to invest in resiliency long-term and meet post-disaster relief needs. FEMA funding can help in the wake of a disaster, but it is often insufficient. As of late 2024, after multiple costly storms like Hurricane Helene and Milton, FEMA’s public assistance program was at risk of running out of money. During those hurricanes in the fall, Congress appropriated $20 billion to FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund, but FEMA spent about half of that amount in just eight days.
Resilient Solutions: When public capital falls short, public-private partnerships can help leverage private capital—both for long-term resiliency initiatives and emergency funding after a disaster.
Current Reality: The largest pools of resilience capital are public. But even still, local coffers are often not enough to make investments in long-term resiliency initiatives. States across the U.S. face an estimated backlog of almost $1 trillion of deferred maintenance and needed upgrades to public infrastructure. Such gaps create opportunities for municipal bonds and other financing mechanisms that harness private capital.
Resilient Solutions: Municipal bonds are a cornerstone of public finance and the economy of the United States, enabling state and local governments to fund critical infrastructure and services like roads, bridges, utilities, and other critical infrastructure. States and local governments are responsible for more than 90% of all public-sector construction spending, most of which is funded through tax-exempt municipal bonds.
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